RICHMOND, VA – JULY 26: Payton Tolle #39 of the Portland Sea Dogs pitches during the game between the Portland Sea Dogs and the Richmond Flying Squirrels at The Diamond on Saturday, July 26, 2025 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Matthew Mitrani/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
The Boston Red Sox have called up Baseball America’s 42nd ranked prospect Payton Tolle to make his Major League debut against Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates at Fenway Park. In 2025, Tolle has pitched in every level of the minor leagues, throwing 49 innings in High A in Salem, 27 innings in AA with the Portland Sea Dogs, and 15 in AAA Worcester. What is behind Payton Tolle’s transformation from a controversial 2024 second-round draft choice out of Texas Christian University into one of the top pitching prospects in baseball?
The Most Effective Pitch in the Minor Leagues
Fastball velocity has become essential in the world of pitching over the last decade. It seems that every pitcher in the sport possesses a mid to upper-90s fastball. Of course, not every pitcher is born with an arm that can produce a high-90s fastball. A cool aspect of the increased use of technology and information in baseball, pitchers who cannot throw a fastball as hard can now fool hitters into thinking they do by changing their mechanics.
Tolle’s Four-Seam Fastball velocity averages out at 95MPH. It tops out at 99, nothing unique in modern baseball, but his elite 7.4 extension deceives hitters into thinking the fastball is harder than it really is. Perceived velocity is how fast a pitch appears to a hitter. A pitch can appear faster or slower depending on the release point of the pitcher in relation to home plate. The average pitcher has an extension of 6 feet and 3 inches; every foot from that average of 6.3 is a perceived 1.7MPH added in perceived velocity (or lost if the extension is a foot below average). Payton Tolle’s average extension of 7 feet 4 inches ranks in the 97th percentile among Major League Pitchers. Only nine active MLB pitchers have an average extension of at least 7 feet 4 with an average fastball velocity of 95MPH or higher, only four of which are starting pitchers. (Logan Gilbert, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Wheeler and Jacob Misiorowski).
The characteristics of Tolle’s fastball are truly unique, with a perceived average velocity of 97 miles per hour. Many have stated that his fastball is the most effective pitch in all of minor league baseball. This season, opponents have hit just .203 against Tolle, as the 6-foot-6 left-hander has struck out 133 batters over 91.2 innings. Throughout the first half of the season, Payton Tolle’s fastball posted a 42% whiff percentage and 40 whiff percentage in the zone, which would be the best in the Major Leagues.
His MLB Pipeline scouting report states that his bulldog mentality and strike-throwing ability are two reasons why the Boston Red Sox believe he can be a frontline starter in Boston for years to come. Tolle attacks the strike zone, which is evident by his 0.99 WHIP, as he has only allowed 23 free passes in 91.2 innings of work.
Payton Tolle is the Real Deal
The reason why Tolle fell into Boston’s hands in the second round of last year’s draft is the concern that he has only one real weapon. His secondary pitches include a slider, changeup, and two new additions: a cutter and a curveball. How his secondary pitches develop will define Tolle’s career. His elite fastball helped him reach the Major Leagues and gives him a high floor as a valuable reliever, but his secondary pitches will need to develop further for him to become a Major League starting pitcher.
Sox Prospects writes “(Tolle) lacks a go-to out pitch right now among those secondaries, but all grade out around average and have improved as 2025 has gone on.”
Tolle’s ability to make the Major Leagues in his first full year of pro baseball is an impressive accomplishment in itself but even more impressive is the fact that his 2024 junior season at TCU was his first season fully dedicated to pitching. With that in mind, Tolle’s potential seems limitless.
Tolle Helps Boston Now
With 91.2 innings of work under his belt this season, how much more will the Red Sox push Tolle for the remainder of the 2025 season? Boston is in a playoff race, and Payton Tolle is a special arm who can help the team win games right now. Garret Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito have done an outstanding job in the starting rotation this season, but the rotation could use some help. Dustin May has been inconsistent since he arrived at the trade deadline. Walker Buehler was moved to the bullpen after posting a 5.40 ERA in 22 starts, Richards Fitts is hurt, and Kyle Harrison has been inconsistent at the AAA level. Payton Tolle could be just what the doctor ordered. However, if Boston uses Tolle as a reliever down the stretch, he can help the team win and have his innings managed at the same time.
When Craig Breslow was hired as Boston’s new Chief Baseball Officer in the Fall of 2023, one of his primary goals was to overhaul the Red Sox’s pitching development infrastructure. In this area, the organization has struggled significantly from the Theo Epstein era to the Chaim Bloom era. In less than two years in Boston, Breslow has turned Boston’s Pitching Development from the organization’s Achilles heel to a strength, as MLB.com ranked Boston third on its list of top ten farm systems with the best pitching prospects. Tolle is a significant reason for that, but prospects like Connor Early, Brandon Clarke, and Kyle Witherspoon are not far behind, and Payton Tolle is the first of many homegrown starting pitchers to come to Boston. Craig Breslow has done his job, and he has done it well.
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