SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – JULY 09: Dylan Cease #84 of the San Diego Padres pitchrs during the first inning of a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park on July 09, 2025, in San Diego, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Historically, the Boston Red Sox are only as good as their pitching. Over the past decade, the Boston Red Sox have made four postseason appearances, winning one World Series. Within that time frame, the Red Sox offense has scored the second-most runs in baseball, with 8,353, only behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. In that time frame, the Red Sox offense has placed in the top ten in runs scored in eight seasons. However, the pitching tells a different story.
Boston’s 4.21 ERA as a staff over the last decade ranks 15th in baseball, with just three seasons in which the team posted an ERA below 4. Those seasons were 2016, 2017, and 2018, which were also three of the four seasons in the past decade that Boston made the playoffs. In 2025, the Red Sox pitching has vastly improved, primarily due to the bullpen posting an American League-best 3.41 ERA, and the rotation’s 3.92 ERA is the lowest since 2018.
Despite the improvement by the pitching staff led by Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito, the lack of rotation depth was a problem for the Red Sox by the season’s end. With Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, Conelly, Early, Payton Tolle, Richard Fitts, Patrick Sandavol, and Kutter Crawford all under contract for 2025, the Red Sox could use a veteran starting pitcher who can slide in as the #2 pitcher on the staff behind Crochet, preferably with postseason experience. There are a lot of options for the Red Sox this offseason, and we will explore them all here at Pesky Post. For starters, we will evaluate the three headlining names on the Starting Pitching Free Agent market: Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, and Framber Valdez.
Zac Gallen Should Be Avoided at All Costs
Zac Gallen’s 2025 campaign can be summed up in one word: Disappointing. In 33 starts, Gallen posted a career high in ERA (4.83), walks (66), and home runs (31) while also posting a career low SO/9 of 8.2. Over the last three seasons, Zac Gallen has ranked 29th, 19th, and 3rd in average exit velocity, which illustrates that hitters hit the ball hard off Gallen. Gallen is at his most effective when he can command his breaking pitches, particularly his curveball, as they help him keep the ball on the ground.
However, his breaking ball run value of -8, ranked in the 7th percentile in 2025, represents a massive swing from a +15, which was in the 98th percentile in 2024. The Hard-Hit Percentage on Gallen’s best pitch, his curveball, went up from 30.6% in 2024 to 44.6% in 2025. Gallen has a lot of red flags coming off the 2025 season due to high exit velocity and a lack of curveball command. Fenway Park is not the right place for Zac Gallen to try to rebound in 2026. Hopefully, Craig Breslow and the rest of the Red Sox Front Office agree to steer clear of Gallen.
Framber Valdez: Intriguing but Risky
Since Framber Valdez became a starting pitcher in 2020, he ranks second in baseball in Quality Starts with 102, only behind Zack Wheeler. In that same time frame, Valdez has thrown the fifth most innings with 973, behind only Logan Webb, Kevin Gausman, Zack Wheeler, and Jose Berrios. He also has the best postseason resume among the top three pitchers. In 2022, he led the Astros to the World Series with a 1.44 ERA in four postseason starts. Valdez is, without a doubt, the most accomplished pitcher in the Free Agent market this offseason. However, at 32, there is a lot of mileage on Valdez’s arm that may be beginning to show. In the second half of the season, Valdez posted a 5.20 ERA and was a significant reason why the Astros failed to make the playoffs, despite leading the division as late as September.
Valdez’s time in Houston is almost guaranteed to be up. The Astros have allowed star players such as George Springer, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and Gerrit Cole to walk in Free Agency over the last several years. The relationship between Valdez and the Astros appears strained anyway, due to his criticism of the Astros’ coaches and players for their lack of common sense, particularly regarding their defensive alignment after a loss, as well as the infamous incident in September where he allegedly purposefully crossed up his own catcher.
Nonetheless, Valdez is one of the best pitchers in baseball and the most effective ground ball pitcher in the game, ranking in the 95th percentile or higher in five of the last six seasons. He will improve any pitching staff he plays for, but the age and potentially undisciplined attitude are also concerns.
Underlying Numbers Prove Dylan Cease- Is Best Option
Dylan Cease may have had the most perplexing 2025 season in baseball. In 32 starts, Cease posted a 4.55 ERA with a FIP of just 3.56, suggesting the San Diego Padres’ poor team defense was a factor behind Cease’s struggles. There is plenty of evidence to support the theory, as Cease ranked in the 60th percentile in exit velocity, 72nd percentile in Hard Hit Percentage, and 81st percentile in expected batting average. The biggest indicator of Cease’s bad luck is that his 3.47 expected ERA is more than a run lower than his actual ERA.
In his last five consecutive seasons, Cease has made at least 32 starts. His durability and positive advanced metrics, coming off a subpar 2025 season, will go a long way in securing Cease a healthy payday this winter. Like Gallen, Cease also hit a career high in home runs, but there are many more positive signs than negative ones that indicate he can bounce back in 2026.
History Tells Us Boston Will Go in a Different Direction
Overall, the Red Sox have the financial flexibility to add to their roster in 2026 and beyond. However, they still have around 200 million committed to their payroll, which is around 40 million short of the first CBT threshold. Boston’s off-season priorities go beyond starting pitching. They also include re-signing Alex Bregman, as well as adding another impact middle-of-the-order bat.
With that in mind, is it wise for the Red Sox to spend a significant amount of money on a top-tier starting pitcher over the age of 30? When you factor in arms like Tolle, Crawford, Sandavol and Early for 2026 it seems unwise to spend on the high-profile names. History tells us the Red Sox will not spend in significant money in Free Agency on starting pitchers. Fortunately, there are plenty of other options for the Red Sox that involve less money and term that Gallen, Cease, and Valdez will receive on the open market.
The Pesky Post 
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