MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – AUGUST 24: Sonny Gray #54 of the St. Louis Cardinals delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Target Field on August 24, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

The Boston Red Sox made a significant move to start the holiday season by acquiring right-handed starter Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Richard Fitts and left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Clarke. For the Boston Red Sox, a team with a highly high-expectations fanbase, the trade has been polarizing. Sox fans were hoping for a big-name Free Agent like Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, or a trade acquisition like Joe Ryan. Pitchers they believe can co-anchor the starting rotation with Garret Crochet. 

“What we need to do, and we will do over the course of the offseason is take a step back and really recognize what type of potential pitching additions or acquisitions really move the needle for us because we do have what I would suggest is a strong group of pitching depth.” Breslow stated on the 310 to Left Podcast.

Gray, 36, started in 32 games for the Cardinals, posting an ERA of 4.28 over 180.2 innings. On paper, he does not appear to be the frontline rotation starter Red Sox Nation has been clamoring for. Gray’s contract will incur a Collective Bargaining Tax of $21 million in 2025. According to Sean McAdam of Mass Live, the Red Sox are $11 million away from going over the CBT threshold for the second consecutive season, which would lead to a 30% tax on the overage. Considering the Red Sox would like to A. Re-sign Alex Bregman and B. Add a significant power bat to their lineup, Gray’s addition to the payroll, along with some lackluster results in 2025, has led some to question this trade. 

He is not the number two we all had in mind. When we thought of a number two starter, we were thinking long term. A cost-controlled, young, solid number two to go behind Garrett Crochet. It has to be Sonny Gray and…” Baseball Content Creator Jared Carrabis stated in a video posted on X.

Sonny Gray’s 2025 Season Was Better Than the Numbers Show

However, there is more to Sonny Gray’s value for the Red Sox than what meets the eye. In 2025, Gray ranked in the 93rd percentile in walks, 81st percentile in chase rate, 79th percentile in strikeout rate, 66th percentile in ground ball rate, and 60th percentile in average exit velocity. When evaluating Gray, Boston saw that all indicators show that Gray’s 2025 performance can be deemed unlucky and that his contribution on the mound this season was better than his ERA indicates, which is evident by his 3.38 FIP. At 36, Gray still possesses a combination of elite secondary pitches on top of elite command. Only three pitchers in baseball have posted over 400 strikeouts and fewer than 80 walks since the start of 2024, and they are Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Sonny Gray. Over the last three seasons, Gray has pitched the 11th-most innings in baseball (531) while posting the 6th-most strikeouts (587). Boston’s acquisition of the three-time All-Star fits with what the team needs—a durable innings eater, with experience leading a rotation. 

“Sonny is a guy who has been a guy who has pitched at the top of rotations… we’re really excited about adding a guy coming off back-to-back 200-K seasons and shouldering significant workload.” Craig Breslow told reporters following the trade on Tuesday. 

 A thirteen-year MLB veteran, He experienced the highs of being a Cy Young finalist and the lows of a 4.90 ERA and a move to the bullpen while pitching for the New York Yankees. Throughout his career, Gray has reinvented himself by throwing more of his secondary pitches, especially his elite slider and strong curveball. A pitcher with Gray’s level of experience will help younger arms like Payton Tolle and Connelly Early, who are hoping to earn a spot in Boston’s starting rotation in 2026. 

There are Red Flags

The concerns here are simple. Sonny Gray will be entering his age-36 season in 2026, and the 5-foot-10 starting pitcher may begin to show wear and tear and begin to break down as he enters his late thirties. In the first half of 2025, Sonny Gray posted a 3.50 ERA over 108 innings. In the second half, things looked much different. Gray’s ERA was 5.45 over his last thirteen outings. It is fair to wonder if Sonny Gray can continue to be a durable frontline starting pitcher at this stage of his career. Pitchers of his size and age are not often as durable as Sonny Gray has been through this point in his career.

” I don’t know that he’s an ace or even a #2 anymore, but he’s still a quality Major League pitcher. You run the risk of the age coming into play in his age 36 season, but certainly he has not showed signs of slowing down yet and he keeps himself in excellent shape.” Ken Rosenthal stated on Foul Territory.

The Boston Red Sox are no strangers to signing aging veteran starting pitchers with below average fastball velocity and great resumes. The hope is that they can use their secondary stuff to be effective innings-eaters and leaders of the rotation. Corey Kluber and fellow Vanderbilt alum Walker Buehler immediately come to mind. However, so far, Sonny Gray has been much more durable and has avoided the Tommy John Surgery that plagued several years of Kluber and Buehler’s careers. Hopefully, Sonny Gray can stay healthy, because if he does, he should be a difference-maker.

Final Thoughts

The cost to make this move was not high. Richard Fitts has shown upside with the Red Sox but has been surpassed in the depth chart by Payton Tolle and Conelly Early. Brandon Clarke is an interesting 22-year-old left-handed pitching prospect who is still in A ball. The swing-and-miss stuff is there from Clarke, but he needs a lot of polishing. When examining this trade, it is hard not to feel Craig Breslow did not accomplish exactly what he set out to do. Acquiring a starting pitcher who can shoulder a significant workload, with elite swing and miss stuff, and help make this rotation better. Looking at the 2026 rotation, the Red Sox will have their ace, Garrett Crochet, along with Brayan Bello, Sonny Gray, and Connelly Early, all of whom can take charge and cement themselves as the co-anchor of this Boston rotation. The depth and ceiling of this 2026 Red Sox rotation is something Red Sox fans should be thankful for this Thanksgiving.