WASHINGTON, DC – JULY 05: Willson Contreras #40 of the St. Louis Cardinals celebrates after hitting a home run to tie the game against the Washington Nationals during the ninth inning at Nationals Park on July 5, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Heading into this offseason, fans of the Boston Red Sox had slugger Pete Alonso joining their favorite baseball team at the top of their Christmas list. Earlier this offseason, Craig Breslow promised to add a middle-of-the-order bat to enhance Boston’s offense, which ranked fifteenth in Home Runs with 186 in 2025.Red Sox fans likened Pete Alonso to the perfect fit for the Red Sox. Since his MLB debut in 2019, Pete Alonso has hit 264 home runs, the third most in baseball behind only Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber. He plays First Base, a position of need for the Boston Red Sox following several injury-filled seasons from Tristan Casas. Following the Baltimore Orioles outbidding the Red Sox for Pete Alonso’s services with a 5 year, $155 million contract, the backlash from Red Sox Nation was loud.
“Our offensive profile lacks a little bit of thump. That’s where we’ve set our sights.” Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow told Alex Spier of the Boston Globe at the Winter Meetings.
On the Sunday before Christmas, the Boston Red Sox addressed their need for a right-handed middle-of-the-order bat who could play First Base by acquiring Willson Contreras from the St. Louis Cardinals. Contreras has steadily been a productive hitter throughout his career. In 2025, Contreras hit .257 with 20 home runs, 80 RBIs, and a .791 OPS. Turning 34 in May, Contreras has two years remaining on his contract with a 17.25 CBT hit, plus a $20 million club option for 2028. Contreras will play in Boston for his age 34, 35, and perhaps 36 seasons. In comparison, Pete Alonso will carry a $31 million CBT hit over five years through his age-35 season.
Craig Breslow has made his improvements to the Red Sox roster this season via trades by acquiring Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo, and Willson Contreras. Gray and Contreras are two older veterans towards the end of their contracts with more minor CBT hits than the marquee Free Agents this winter. An argument has been made that Boston’s strategy of trading prospects and organizational depth for shorter-term, more affordable players is hurting the team rather than paying top dollar for top Free Agents. Is that true? Let’s find out by evaluating Pete Alonso and Willson Contreras.
Comparing Pete Alonso and Willson Contreras
At first glance, Pete Alonso is a better player than Willson Contreras. After all, Alonso is a superstar and one of the game’s premier sluggers, ranking first in RBIs and third in Home Runs since his debut in 2019. Durability and power have separated Alonso from so many of the game’s stars throughout his career. Pete Alonso has played all 162 games in each of the last two seasons while hitting 30+ home runs. Contreras does provide some pop in his own right. The 10-year MLB veteran has hit at least 20 home runs in six seasons, never hitting more than 24. Pete Alonso hits Home Runs and Drives in Runs at an elite rate, but there is a strong argument to be made that Willson Contreras is the more complete baseball player.
For instance, let’s take a look at Weighted on Base Average or wOBA. wOBA is considered a more accurate metric than OPS, because it assigns a specific value to every outcome based on research of the historical run value of these events (walk, single, double, triple, home run, etc.) This allows for a more accurate measurement of a player’s contribution than OPS, but it does not accurately weigh different outcomes, and it overvalues power and underrates On Base Percentage, which is 1.8x more valuable for scoring runs.
Since 2023, Willson Contreras has posted a wOBA of .356, which ranks 9th among Right-Handed Hitters in that time frame. Pete Alonso ranks 12th with a .352 wOBA. Add Expected Weighted On-Base Average into the picture, which predicts future wOBA by measuring quality of contact (Exit Velocity, launch angle, etc.) to illustrate expected outcomes as opposed to results. Contreras and Alonso each have a .365 xwOBA. Lastly, let’s take a look at Wins Runs Created Plus (wRC+), which uses wOBA to measure a player’s total offensive production. wRC+ answers the question “How many Runs did this player create compared to the average player?” Similar to OPS+, it is on the 100-point scale, with 100 as the average. Over the last three seasons, Contreras posted a wRC+ of 129, tied for ninth among Right-Handed Hitters, while Pete Alonso posted a wRC+ of 128, tied for eleventh among Right-Handed bats.
The Biggest Difference is Defense
For those unconvinced by advanced hitting analytics such as wOBA, xwOBA, and wRC+ and favor the more traditional stats such as Home Runs and RBIs, there are other areas of the game in which Willson Contreras helps the Boston Red Sox. Run Prevention. Earlier this offseason, Breslow noted how improving the team defense was a priority heading into 2026.
“I think we can talk about the different elements of the game, and say that we have to examine our defense, we led the league in errors, and that’s not good enough.” Craig Brelsow told the Athletics’ Jen McCaffrey earlier this offseason.”
Boston utilized four first basemen in 2025 with Tristian Casas, Abraham Toro, Romy Gonzalez, and Nathaniel Lowe. Romy Gonzalez led the team in outs above average with -1. Improving team defense will go a long way. The Boston Red Sox make too many mistakes, which cost them runs and games. Fortunately, Willson Contreras will provide the Red Sox with a significant defensive upgrade at First Base.
Contreras transitioned to first base in 2025 after spending the first nine seasons of his Major League career as a catcher. In his first full season at first base, Contreras posted 6 Outs Above Average, ranking fourth among qualified first basemen behind only Ty France, Matt Olson, and Carlos Santana. Pete Alonso, on the other hand, posted -9 Outs Above Average, the second worst among First basemen in all of baseball behind only Rockies first baseman Michael Toglia. Using Statcast’s Runs Prevented, we can convert Outs Above Average into Runs Saved. According to Statcast, Willson Contreras prevented four runs at First Base in 2025. In comparison, Pete Alonso prevented -7 runs. That +11-run swing can make a huge difference and decide not just one game but several, which is a massive deal in the always competitive AL East.
Are the Red Sox Being “Cheap” or Smart?
At a further glance, the gap between Pete Alonso and Willson Contreras is not as large as one may think. Which begs the question: are the Red Sox truly hurting their competitive window by not paying top dollar for high-end talent? Whether or not you believe Pete Alonso is a more talented or valuable baseball player than Willson Contreras due to Alonso’s power and durability, it’s undeniable that the gap between the two players is not significant. Since 2023, Pete Alonso has posted an fWAR of 8.4, as opposed to Contreras’s 8.2. Contreras’s injury history matters here, but it is important to note that the Cardinals moved him to First Base after spending 9 years as a catcher. The result was that Contreras posted a career-high in plate appearances in 2025, moving from catcher to First Base.
The Boston Red Sox are in a promising position with a young core of players such as Roman Anthony, Garret Crochet, Carlos Narvaez, Wilyer Abreu, Marcelo Mayer, Jarren Duran, and Brayan Bello donning the Red Sox uniform for the foreseeable future. Boston seems poised to be a fixture in the playoffs for the remainder of the decade. Adding premier talent to this team will help extend Boston’s competitive window and get it closer to a World Series. However, how they identify that talent and allocate their resources to acquire it needs to be done smartly and efficiently. Boston saved $ 112.5 million by acquiring Willson Contreras rather than Pete Alonso. That money saved will give them the flexibility to add Alex Bregman or Bo Bichette this offseason, or perhaps fill other needs that could arise in subsequent seasons. So, are the Red Sox actually being unwise by trading depth for shorter-term, more affordable players such as Willson Contreras, rather than committing longer term at a more lucrative price for a marquee Free Agent such as Alonso? Not all. If anything, it shows that the Red Sox are smart and sustaining their competitive window.
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